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I published this last October, and it’s amazing that an alcoholic blogger provided a better preview of upcoming problems in the Middle East than most of our politicians or major news outlets.

October 25, 2011

I’m still not sure the Arab Spring isn’t going to end as a nuclear winter, and I’m bewildered why Western governments are supporting the fall of the old-line Arab regimes. Ben Ali, Mubarak, Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein have all fallen in quick succession, and we have no idea who will replace them. There’s a belief that democracy will reign, but you’re talking about countries with no history of representative government. It’s far more likely you’ll see theocracy before democracy.

Tunisia is currently holding the first free elections in the nation’s history, and it appears the once-banned Islamist party is going to win. The only people surprised by this seem to be Western journalists and politicians. Tunisia’s economy is in free-fall because tourism has tanked since the uprising, and foreign investment is negligible. This country is well on the path to being radicalized, but Obama sent his congratulations after the election because he seems oblivious to the danger it represents.

The U.S. invaded Afghanistan because it was a full-fledged theocratic state committed to waging a war of religion against the world. Why does anyone think Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Iraq will go in a different direction?

In an ideal world, all of the Mid-East would be run by criminals. Men who only care about getting paid and getting laid. Men we can buy. You know, like the men who were just toppled. Now, we’re dealing with wild-eyed zealots who actually believe in something.

The world is about to get a lot more dangerous, and all it will take is one event to set it off. Unfortunately, our leaders have more good will than good sense so they don’t see it.